On predicting climate under climate change
Can today’s global climate model ensembles characterize the 21st century climate in their own ‘model-worlds’? This question is at the heart of how we design and interpret climate model … read more »
Topic: Climate science, uncertainty and risk
Assessing what to address in science communication.
Bruine de Bruin, W., & Bostrom, A. (2013). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110, 14062-14068.
The Structure of Economic modelling of the potential impacts of climate change has grafted gross underestimation onto already narrow science models
Nicholas Stern, Journal of Economic Literature, September, 2013.
Mapping the climate sceptical blogosphere
While mainstream scientific knowledge production has been extensively examined in the academic literature, comparatively little is known about alternative networks of scientific knowledge production. Online sources … read more »
Modeling climate mitigation and adaptation policies to predict their effectiveness: The limits of randomized controlled trials
Modeling climate mitigation and adaptation policies to predict their effectiveness read more »
Response to public consultation on ‘Securing the future availability and affordability of home insurance in areas of flood risk’
Flooding is the biggest natural disaster risk in England. Flood risk is expected to increase due to climate change and continued development of floodplains for residential and commercial property, which increases the exposure of homes and businesses. Addressing the causes and consequences of flooding is very important and we welcome the recent efforts by the Government and the insurance industry to reform the approach to flood insurance in England. read more »
The communication of physical science uncertainty in European National Adaptation Strategies
Many European countries have developed National Adaptation Strategies (NAS) to guide adaptation to the expected impacts of climate change. There is a need for more structured communication of the uncertainties related to future climate and its impacts so that adaptation actions can be planned and implemented effectively and efficiently. We develop a novel uncertainty assessment […]
Response to European Commission’s green paper on the insurance of natural and man-made disasters
of key points Insurance is one tool amongst others in a holistic natural disaster risk management strategy. Risk transfer alone, without consideration of risk reduction efforts, is not a … read more »
Do flood insurance schemes in developing countries provide incentives to reduce physical risks?
Risk transfer, including insurance, is widely recognised as a tool for increasing financial resilience to severe weather events, such as floods. The application of this mechanism … read more »
On estimating local long-term climate trends
Climate sensitivity is commonly taken to refer to the equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Evaluating this … read more »